Linear Regression & Correlation: Theory & 15 Solved Questions
Specialized Study Guide for SSC CGL Tier-II Paper-II (Junior Statistical Officer - JSO & Statistical Investigator Grade-II). Covers regression lines, coefficients, angle between lines, and 15 exam questions.
Bivariate Linear Regression Overviewद्विचरीय रैखिक प्रतिगमन अवलोकन
While correlation measures the strength and direction of a mutual relationship between two variables, regression expresses the functional relationship between a dependent (criterion) variable and an independent (predictor) variable to enable prediction.
जबकि सहसंबंध दो चरों के बीच पारस्परिक संबंध की मजबूती और दिशा को मापता है, प्रतिगमन भविष्यवाणी को सक्षम करने के लिए एक आश्रित चर और एक स्वतंत्र चर के बीच कार्यात्मक संबंध को व्यक्त करता है।
The Two Lines of Regressionप्रतिगमन की दो रेखाएँ
1. Line of Regression of $Y$ on $X$
Used to estimate the value of $Y$ for a specified value of $X$:
where $b_{yx}$ is the regression coefficient of $Y$ on $X$:
2. Line of Regression of $X$ on $Y$
Used to estimate the value of $X$ for a specified value of $Y$:
where $b_{xy}$ is the regression coefficient of $X$ on $Y$:
Fundamental Properties of Regression Coefficients (SSC JSO Must-Know)प्रतिगमन गुणांकों के मौलिक गुण
- 1. Same Signs: $b_{yx}$, $b_{xy}$, and $r$ must all share the identical algebraic sign. If both coefficients are negative, $r$ is strictly negative.
- 2. Geometric Mean Relationship: The correlation coefficient is the geometric mean of the regression coefficients: $$r = \pm\sqrt{b_{yx} \cdot b_{xy}}$$
- 3. Arithmetic Mean Dominance: The arithmetic mean of the regression coefficients is numerically greater than or equal to the absolute correlation coefficient: $$\frac{b_{yx} + b_{xy}}{2} \ge |r|$$
- 4. Reciprocal Bound: Since $r^2 \le 1$, the product $b_{yx} \cdot b_{xy} \le 1$. If one regression coefficient exceeds 1 in magnitude, the other must be less than 1. Both cannot simultaneously exceed 1.
- 5. Point of Intersection: The two regression lines always intersect at the mean coordinates $(\bar{X}, \bar{Y})$.
- 6. Origin & Scale Invariance: Regression coefficients are independent of change of origin, but dependent on change of scale. If $U = \frac{X - a}{h}$ and $V = \frac{Y - b}{k}$, then: $$b_{yx} = \frac{k}{h} b_{vu} \quad \text{and} \quad b_{xy} = \frac{h}{k} b_{uv}$$
Angle Between Two Regression Linesदो प्रतिगमन रेखाओं के बीच का कोण
If $\theta$ is the acute angle between the two lines of regression, then:
- Case I ($r = \pm 1$): $\tan \theta = 0 \implies \theta = 0^\circ$. The two lines coincide. Perfect linear correlation.
- Case II ($r = 0$): $\tan \theta \to \infty \implies \theta = 90^\circ$. The two lines are perpendicular to each other ($Y = \bar{Y}$ and $X = \bar{X}$). Zero correlation.
Exam Shortcuts for SSC Statistical Investigatorएसएससी सांख्यिकीय अन्वेषक के लिए शॉर्टकट
Shortcut 1: Instantly Find $\bar{X}$ and $\bar{Y}$
Whenever an SSC question provides two regression equations like $2X + 3Y = 18$ and $4X + Y = 16$ and asks for the mean of $X$ and $Y$, do not calculate slopes. Simply treat them as simultaneous linear equations and solve for $(X, Y)$ using substitution or elimination. The solution is identically $(\bar{X}, \bar{Y})$.
Shortcut 2: How to Tell Which Line is $Y$ on $X$ and Which is $X$ on $Y$
Assume the first equation is $Y$ on $X$ (write in form $Y = m_1 X + c_1 \implies b_{yx} = m_1$) and the second is $X$ on $Y$ (write in form $X = m_2 Y + c_2 \implies b_{xy} = m_2$).
Calculate the product $m_1 \cdot m_2$.
- If $m_1 \cdot m_2 \le 1$, your assumption was correct!
- If $m_1 \cdot m_2 > 1$, your assumption was reversed. Swap the two equations.
Shortcut 3: Negative Sign Trap in $r = \pm\sqrt{b_{yx} \cdot b_{xy}}$
If $b_{yx} = -0.8$ and $b_{xy} = -0.2$, then: $$r = -\sqrt{(-0.8)(-0.2)} = -\sqrt{0.16} = -0.4$$ SSC frequently sets positive $+0.4$ as Option (A) to trap unwary students. Always look at the signs of $b_{yx}$ and $b_{xy}$ first!
Key Concept Revision & Frequently Asked Questionsमहत्वपूर्ण नोट्स एवं अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न
Why are there two regression lines instead of just one?
Each regression line minimizes the sum of squared errors in a different direction. The line of $Y$ on $X$ minimizes the vertical sum of squared residuals ($\sum (y_i - \hat{y}_i)^2$), treating $X$ as error-free. The line of $X$ on $Y$ minimizes horizontal residuals ($\sum (x_i - \hat{x}_i)^2$), treating $Y$ as error-free. They only coincide when $|r| = 1$, where there are zero residuals in both directions.
What is the Standard Error of Estimate?
The Standard Error of Estimate measures the dispersion of observed values around the regression line: $$S_{yx} = \sigma_y \sqrt{1 - r^2} \quad \text{and} \quad S_{xy} = \sigma_x \sqrt{1 - r^2}$$ When $r = \pm 1$, $S_{yx} = 0$, meaning every point lies directly on the regression line. When $r = 0$, $S_{yx} = \sigma_y$, meaning the regression line offers no predictive improvement over the simple mean $\bar{Y}$.
What is the Coefficient of Determination?
The square of the correlation coefficient, $r^2$, is known as the Coefficient of Determination. It represents the proportion of total variation in the dependent variable that is explained by the independent variable. The remainder $(1 - r^2)$ is the Coefficient of Non-Determination (unexplained variance).
SSC Statistical Investigator Practice Questions (Q1 – Q8)अभ्यास प्रश्न
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Correct Option: (A)सही विकल्प: (A)
$x + 2y = 5 \implies x = 5 - 2y$
Substitute into second equation: $2(5 - 2y) + 3y = 8 \implies 10 - 4y + 3y = 8 \implies -y = -2 \implies y = 2$.
Then $x = 5 - 2(2) = 1$. Thus $\bar{X} = 1, \bar{Y} = 2$.
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Correct Option: (B)सही विकल्प: (B)
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Correct Option: (C)सही विकल्प: (C)
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Correct Option: (B)सही विकल्प: (B)
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Correct Option: (C)सही विकल्प: (C)
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Correct Option: (A)सही विकल्प: (A)
We know $b_{vu} = \frac{\text{scale of } V}{\text{scale of } U} \times b_{yx} = \frac{-3}{2} \times 0.6 = -1.5 \times 0.6 = -0.9$.
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Correct Option: (A)सही विकल्प: (A)
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Correct Option: (A)सही विकल्प: (A)
Solved Previous Year Questions (SSC JSO / Statistical Investigator Paper-II)विगत वर्षों के हल प्रश्न
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Correct Option: (A)सही विकल्प: (A)
Let $3X + 2Y = 26 \implies 2Y = -3X + 26 \implies Y = -1.5 X + 13 \implies b_{yx} = -1.5$.
Let $6X + Y = 31 \implies 6X = -Y + 31 \implies X = -\frac{1}{6}Y + \frac{31}{6} \implies b_{xy} = -0.1667$.
Product $b_{yx} \cdot b_{xy} = (-1.5) \times (-1/6) = 1.5 / 6 = 0.25 \le 1$.
Valid assumption! Thus $r = -\sqrt{0.25} = -0.5$.
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Correct Option: (B)सही विकल्प: (B)
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Correct Option: (A)सही विकल्प: (A)
We have $b_{yx} = 0.57$, $b_{xy} = 1.12$, and $\sigma_y = \sqrt{16} = 4$.
We know $\frac{b_{xy}}{b_{yx}} = \frac{r (\sigma_x / \sigma_y)}{r (\sigma_y / \sigma_x)} = \frac{\sigma_x^2}{\sigma_y^2}$.
Thus $\frac{\sigma_x^2}{16} = \frac{1.12}{0.57} \approx 1.9649 \implies \sigma_x^2 = 16 \times 1.9649 = 31.438 \implies \sigma_x \approx 5.6$.
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Correct Option: (A)सही विकल्प: (A)
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Correct Option: (A)सही विकल्प: (A)
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Correct Option: (C)सही विकल्प: (C)
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Correct Option: (A)सही विकल्प: (A)
$b_{yx} = \frac{N \sum XY - (\sum X)(\sum Y)}{N \sum X^2 - (\sum X)^2} = \frac{10(220) - (60)(40)}{10(400) - (60)^2} = \frac{2200 - 2400}{4000 - 3600} = \frac{-200}{400} = -0.5$.